In 2013, HODINKEE asked a bold question: which vintage watches should be more expensive than they were?
At the time, the vintage watch market was still largely driven by specialists and enthusiasts. Rolex collecting was growing, but had not yet reached mainstream frenzy. Auction results were followed quietly, social media had not globalised watch culture, and many historically important watches remained accessible to informed collectors.
HODINKEE’s article, “Ten Vintage Watches That Should Be More Expensive Than They Are — And Why,” became one of the most-read and most-discussed pieces in modern watch media. Thirteen years later, in 2026, it’s worth asking:
Where are those watches now?
2013: The Undervalued Era
In 2013, the watches highlighted shared several common traits:
- Strong historical, military, or technical significance
- Limited mainstream recognition
- Prices driven by knowledge rather than hype
- Often overshadowed by Rolex and Patek Philippe
Notably, the list included no Rolex watches at all. This wasn’t an oversight — it was intentional. Rolex was already well understood, while many other brands with deep horological importance were still underappreciated.
For collectors at the time, these watches represented opportunity rather than speculation.
Where Are They Now? (2013 → 2026)
Heuer Bundeswehr Flyback Chronograph
Then: A niche military chronograph appreciated mainly by purists.
Now: Recognised as a cornerstone of vintage Heuer collecting.
As collectors reassessed military-issued chronographs and early flyback movements, the Bundeswehr became a reference point. Originality now matters immensely, and strong examples trade at multiples of their 2013 prices.
Verdict: HODINKEE was right.
IWC Mark XI
Then: A tool watch for aviation historians.
Now: One of the most important pilot’s watches ever made.
The Mark XI is now widely recognised as a design blueprint for modern pilot watches. Prices have risen steadily rather than explosively — a sign of a mature and educated market.
Verdict: Undervalued then, correctly valued now.
Heuer Carrera (Calibre 11 Era)
Then: Overshadowed by manual Carreras and Rolex Daytonas.
Now: Reframed as a landmark moment in chronograph history.
As collectors gained a deeper appreciation for the first automatic chronographs, early Calibre 11 Carreras experienced renewed interest. Despite strong gains, they still trail equivalent Rolex references.
Verdict: Still arguably undervalued in 2026.
Breitling Top Time
Then: Stylish but unfashionable.
Now: A cultural icon of 1960s design.
The Top Time benefited from a broader reappraisal of mid-century chronographs and renewed interest in Breitling’s heritage. Strong examples now command meaningful premiums.
Verdict: Cultural relevance finally caught up with value.
GUB / Pre-A. Lange & Söhne German Watchmaking
Then: Historically important but poorly understood.
Now: Recognised as foundational to modern German haute horlogerie.
Collectors increasingly view these watches as essential context for understanding A. Lange & Söhne. Prices remain relatively accessible, but conviction among serious collectors is growing.
Verdict: Still undervalued — but no longer ignored.
Then vs Now: Price Comparison
| Model | 2013 Price Range | 2026 Price Range |
|---|---|---|
| Heuer Bundeswehr Flyback | $3,000 – $4,500 | $15,000 – $20,000 |
| IWC Mark XI | $5,000 – $6,000 | $15,000 – $20,000 |
| Heuer Carrera Calibre 11 | $5,000 – $6,000 | $15,000 – $18,000 |
| Breitling Top Time | $2,500 – $3,500 | $10,000 – $12,500 |
| GUB / Pre-A. Lange & Söhne | $2,000 – $2,500 | $5,000 – $7,500 |
What Changed Between 2013 and 2026?
- The Rolex Effect: Exploding Rolex prices pushed collectors to look elsewhere.
- Global Information: Social media and online auctions democratised knowledge.
- Story Over Materials: Provenance and history began to outweigh gold content.
- The Educated Collector: Depth now matters more than hype.
The Bigger Lesson
HODINKEE’s 2013 article wasn’t about predicting short-term price spikes. It was about identifying a gap between historical importance and market recognition.
Many of those watches are no longer cheap. Some are no longer attainable. But the lesson remains timeless:
The best vintage watches don’t become valuable because they’re popular. They become popular because they were important first.
At James Patten Watches, this philosophy continues to guide how we view collecting — not as speculation, but as the preservation of horological history.
