If you’d bought a Rolex five years ago instead of shares… would you be better off?
It’s one of the most common questions we hear — and for a brief, very loud moment, the answer looked like an easy “yes.” But like all good financial stories, the truth is far more interesting.
Let’s break down what actually happened between Rolex prices and the stock market over the last five years — without the hype.
The Five-Year Rollercoaster (2021–2026)
The Rolex market over the last five years didn’t move in a straight line. It behaved more like a tech stock than a traditional luxury product.
Rolex secondary market performance vs stock market trends, 2021–2026.
🚀 2020–Early 2022: The Rolex Rocket Ship
During the pandemic boom, Rolex prices surged:
- Steel sports models like the Daytona, Submariner, and GMT-Master II exploded in value
- Secondary market prices rose at rates approaching ~20% per year in some indices
- The S&P 500 averaged closer to ~8% annual growth over similar periods
This was the era when people stopped asking “Is Rolex a good investment?” and started asking “Which Rolex should I buy next week?”
💥 Mid-2022 to 2024: Reality Checks In
Then gravity arrived.
- Rolex prices peaked around early 2022
- Major watch indices fell more than 40% from their highs by late 2023
- Easy flip profits disappeared
Meanwhile, the stock market also dipped — but didn’t require box, papers, servicing, or authentication.
This was the moment Rolex stopped looking like a shortcut to profit and started behaving like a real asset.
📈 2025–Early 2026: Stabilisation & Recovery
By 2025, the market began to calm:
- Prices stabilised and selective recovery began
- Highly liquid models recovered first
- Secondary market indices rose again in high-single digits
- Rolex increased retail pricing — especially on gold models
By early 2026, the Rolex market sat at its strongest level in two years — quieter, healthier, and far more rational.
So… Did Rolex Beat the Stock Market?
Sometimes — but not always.
Over the *right* five-year window, certain Rolex models did outperform the stock market. Over the *wrong* window, they didn’t.
| Asset | Performance Profile |
|---|---|
| Rolex (selected models) | High upside, high volatility, illiquid, wearable |
| Stock Market (S&P 500) | Lower volatility, highly liquid, predictable long-term averages |
Rolex didn’t replace stocks — it behaved like a collectible with moments of exceptional performance.
Which Rolex Models Actually Performed Best?
Not “Rolex” as a whole — specific models.
- Steel Daytona
- GMT-Master II (classic bezels)
- Submariner (no-date, black)
- Datejust (classic steel configurations)
The biggest mistakes came from overpaying at the 2022 peak, buying poor condition examples, or assuming every Rolex was guaranteed upside.
The Lesson Everyone Learns Eventually
Rolex is not a stock replacement.
It behaves more like:
- A store of value
- A collectible with cycles
- A long-term hold with emotional dividends
The collectors who did best weren’t chasing charts — they were buying watches they actually wanted to wear, in excellent condition, at sensible prices.
The James Patten Watches View
Buy Rolex because you love it. Choose wisely and it may reward you financially over time.
Buy purely for profit — and the market has a habit of teaching lessons.
If it beats the stock market? That’s a bonus.
If it doesn’t? At least you enjoyed the wrist time.
Market references: WatchCharts Rolex Index, Bloomberg luxury watch coverage, Business Insider analysis, Subdial Index. Past performance is not a guarantee of future returns.
